The outlook for travel to Europe is promising despite global pressures such as high inflation, the war in Ukraine, the consequent energy crisis, and the looming economic recession.
The latest data indicates a recovery of 75% of 2019 travel volumes to Europe in 2022, according to the European Travel Commission’s (ETC) report, European Tourism: Trends & Prospects for 2022.
This strong tourism rebound is expected to continue well into 2023, though at a slower pace. Looking forward, international travel to Europe is forecast to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2025, while domestic travel will fully recover in 2024.
“As European short-haul travel is well on its way to recovery, the tourism industry’s attention has now turned to long-haul arrivals. In welcome news, we can expect the long-awaited return of Asia Pacific visitors in the coming months,” says ETC President, Luís Araújo.
European travel recovery persisted in late 2022, supported by a strong pent-up demand. Excess savings during the pandemic likely extended the summer season as travellers were eager to get out and travel after three years of COVID-19 lockdowns.
Year-to-date data compared with 2019 shows that roughly every one in two destinations in Europe have recovered more than 80% of their pre-pandemic foreign arrivals.
Overall, southern Mediterranean destinations posted the fastest recovery as the year ended.
High prices spurred the attractiveness of more affordable destinations, with holidaymakers flocking to Turkey (2022 saw arrivals reach 98% of 2019 levels) to benefit from a weaker lira. Luxembourg (96% of 2019 levels), Serbia (94%), Greece (94%), and Portugal (93%) are also fast approaching 2019 levels.
The slowest destinations to recover were in Eastern Europe due to the war in Ukraine and lack of Russian visitors to destinations heavily reliant on this market. Sharpest declines are observed in Finland (with arrivals still 38% below 2019 numbers), Lithuania, Latvia, and Romania (all three at 42% below 2019).
Transatlantic travel is expected to continue making significant contributions to European destinations. The US leads the recovery of long-haul travel to Europe, thanks to fewer travel restrictions and the strength of the dollar against the euro. Based on year-to-date data, almost one in four of European destinations saw US arrivals exceed 2019 levels.
Growth from North America, however, might slow in 2023 as the economic outlook points to a mild recession due to challenges associated with inflation, labour markets and consumer and business confidence, among others.
Click here to read the report in full.
