Demand for air travel from and within Africa is expected to grow faster than the global average, according to IATA’s latest Long-Term Air Transport Passenger Demand Projections (LTDP).
However, this growth comes off a low base. Africa currently accounts for just 2% of the global passenger air travel market, despite representing around one fifth of the world’s population, according to the UN.
The LTDP forecasts long-term growth in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), measured as compound annual growth rates (CAGR), across three scenarios. These are based on varying assumptions around economic and population growth, aviation fuel prices, capacity development and the global energy transition, as the airline industry works towards nett zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Globally, RPK growth is expected to range between 2,9% and 3,3% per year by 2050. In comparison, traffic from Africa is projected to grow at a faster rate of between 3,2% and 3,9%.
Growth is expected to be strongest on intra-African routes, with RPK forecast to increase between 4,4% and 5,2%, followed by Africa – Asia Pacific routes (4,1% to 4,7%).
Other key markets include Africa – North America (3,5% to 4,1%), Africa – Middle East (2,5% to 3,7%), Africa – Latin America (2,8% to 3,5%) and Africa – Europe (2,6% to 3,2%).
