While travel agents are still advising their clients to secure airfares early, the reason for doing so has shifted. In the current volatile operating environment, early booking is no longer solely about affordability but rather increasing protection against airfare volatility, limited capacity and disruptions.
“Historically, early booking was about securing availability and locking in promotional fares,” explained Sue Garrett, GM Pricing, Supply & Marketing at Flight Centre Travel Group South Africa. “Today, it’s primarily about protection against further fare increases, as demand continues to outpace supply on key routes, and protection against lost availability on preferred June and July departure dates as seats concentrate on to a narrower set of carriers.”
Airfare volatility
However, booking early does not automatically reduce risk.
“Booking early still has value, but not in the way it used to,” said Jonathan Gerber, CEO of TAG Travel. “Volatility in fuel costs, capacity shifts and exchange rates has made pricing less predictable.”
According to Flight Centre surveys, travellers in the South African market were already booking their airfares in advance because it is a price-sensitive market.
“The number-one worry among travellers is, unsurprisingly, price anxiety. South African travellers are among the most value-conscious of any market Flight Centre operates in, and the visible increase in fares on alternative routing options has been jarring for many,” said Garrett.
Gerber explained that recent currency fluctuations had had a massive impact on total cost, as prices varied between quoting and issuing a ticket and fuel surcharges had become dynamic.
“Clients are questioning whether higher fares are delivering a better experience and, whilst I think there is a lack of traveller confidence for routes via the Middle East due to the volatility of the situation, we do find some of the more price-conscious clients are still willing to travel that route,” said Gerber.
Flexible fares
However, travellers’ concerns are no longer just about high prices but the unpredictability of flights, including delays, cancellations and changing capacity, due to airspace closures and schedule changes.
“The situation remains volatile and conditions can change within days, which is why our consistent advice is to book early but only with fares that are fully flexible and refundable,” said Garrett.
“A non-refundable ticket bought early is a risk in the current environment. The combination of early booking and fare flexibility is what safeguards the traveller.”
For this reason, premium economy and more flexible booking classes are seeing stronger uptake.
Gerber explained that these fare types offered baggage allowances, seat selection and flexibility for changes, which were becoming more deliberate considerations among travellers.
“Travellers are prioritising flexible booking classes even where they carry a small premium, because the cost of that flexibility is significantly lower than the cost of a non-refundable booking that needs to change,” said Garrett.
She added that Emirates and Qatar Airways’ current offering of complimentary date change options on new bookings, meaningfully reduced the risk of committing to travel in an uncertain environment.
“For South African travellers who have been hesitating over Gulf carrier bookings, these flexibility policies, along with extremely competitive airfares, change the calculation considerably.”
Carrier selection
For the price-conscious traveller, Emirates and Qatar’s recent competitive airfare offerings are a drawcard, however other travellers remain cautious about using the Middle Eastern carriers, due to potential disruptions.
“Carrier selection has become a more active conversation than it has been in years,” explained Garrett. “Interestingly, Flight Centre booking data shows that Emirates and Qatar Airways are currently offering some of the most competitive fares in the market on several key routes.
She notes that the carriers’ offerings on specific routes are lower than pre-conflict February levels, with other airlines’ fares on the same routes coming in at over 60% higher.
However, there are also travellers who are still nervous to book with the Gulf carriers.
“Many clients who would ordinarily book Emirates or Qatar without a second thought are hesitating, unsure whether the situation warrants caution or whether they’re leaving significant value on the table by defaulting to alternatives. Our data suggests the latter is often true, which is why the carrier selection conversation has become one of the most important things we’re having with clients right now,” said Garrett.
“Carrier selection, far from being a simple ‘avoid the Gulf’ decision, has become a nuanced conversation about value, flexibility, and risk tolerance.”
Communication is key
Garrett observed that travellers were experiencing general anxiety about booking anything at all in this complex and unpredictable travel environment, increasing the value of travel agent consultation.
“What we’re finding is that this anxiety dissolves almost entirely when clients understand their options clearly – when they know their fare is flexible, their insurance is appropriate, and they have someone they can call if things change,” said Garrett.
Flight Centre data, prior to the conflict, found that 97% of South Africans who intended to travel saw value in using a travel agent, with 62% citing peace of mind if things change or go wrong and 54% citing assistance with complex or multi-destination itineraries. Both of those needs were acutely present right now, noted Garrett.
“Clients are becoming savvier and we, as agents, need to keep them informed and advise on all available options. Agents are more critical than ever and we are finding more travellers coming back to us and using our services again,” added Gerber.
