Worldwide, domestic flights will recover sooner than long-haul but the economic repercussions of COVID-19 will result in a slow recovery.
Brian Pearce, Iata’s chief economist, shared figures during an online media update this week, showing that domestic flights worldwide were currently down 70%.
“The economic environment that we are expecting over the next six months is really not conducive to any substantial return to air travel. We are expecting to see recovery in the third quarter to be relatively modest,” he said, adding that the recession would damage passenger confidence.
Brian drew on the examples of China and Australia, where new COVID-19 infection rates had fallen to very low levels and early indications of the cautious return-to-travel behaviour had been seen. In China, there had been a slight boost in business travel confidence but not leisure. In Australia, domestic demand had continued to deteriorate even after the rate of new infections fell into single digits – and there was still no sign of a recovery, he said.
Iata’s director general and ceo, Alexandre de Juniac, said: “Passenger confidence will suffer a double whammy, even after the pandemic is contained – hit by personal economic concerns in the face of a looming recession on top of lingering concerns about the safety of travel.
“People still want to travel. But they want clarity on the economic situation and will likely wait for at least a few months after any ‘all clear’ before returning to the skies. As countries lift restrictions, confidence-boosting measures will be critical to re-start travel and stimulate economies.”
An Iata survey done in April showed that 40% of passengers said they would wait six months or longer before travelling. The survey was conducted in Australia, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, India, Japan, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the Unites States.
