International travel to Europe is slowly but surely showing signs of post-pandemic recovery, with Istanbul, Lisbon, and Madrid in particular showing strong arrival numbers.
The trend looks set to continue in the last quarter of this year, despite factors like inflation, recession, oil prices and the war in Ukraine.
This is the message from database management company ForwardKeys in its air ticketing data report. The data show that in Q3, while arrivals to Europe were still 29% below 2019 levels, Q4 will see further improvement compared with pre-pandemic times. In contrast, Africa and the Middle East were only 19% below pre-pandemic levels, and the Americas 24%.
ForwardKeys found that urban destinations were attracting more international visitors than ever before, according to data showing a progressive recovery in urban tourism now versus 2019 levels. In contrast, sun and beach destinations show plateauing figures, except for October 2022, when key source markets like Germany and the UK enjoyed the autumn half-term school holidays in southern Europe.
Istanbul, Lisbon and Madrid look set to continue attracting international arrivals close to pre-pandemic levels this year. “Boosted by a weak lira and excellent connectivity, Istanbul was again the best performing city in Q3 2022 and is set to remain in the green during Q4, as bookings currently are 6% above 2019 levels,” says Olivier Ponti, VP of Insights at ForwardKeys.
With the conflict in Ukraine, rising airfares and cost of living, travel recovery still has obstacles to face in the wake of COVID. “The booking situation shows there will be a strong demand but this may place airports and airlines under pressure again as we saw taking place this summer,” says Ponti. “The recent lifting of travel restrictions in Hong Kong and Japan has made it easier for the nationals from these countries to return from an international trip, and Europe, as a consequence, is set to benefit from this.”
