South African domestic air travel seems to have borne the brunt of the impact from the Middle East conflict and subsequent fuel price increases, according to ACSA passenger traffic data for March and April 2026.
While passenger volumes remained resilient in March, April saw traffic decline at the country's major airports as higher airfares began filtering through to travellers.
Total scheduled passenger traffic in March was up year on year at all three major airports. OR Tambo International Airport (JNB) recorded growth of 9,1%, Cape Town International Airport (CPT) 7,2% and King Shaka International Airport (DUR) 6,6%.
However, April painted a different picture. JNB's total scheduled passenger traffic was largely flat, increasing just 0,19% year on year, while CPT recorded a 4% decline and DUR a 6,9% decrease.
Aviation consultant, Sean Mendis, explained that this was likely a delayed response to the conflict in the Middle East, which started mid-March.
“The delayed response to the crisis is pretty much a function of the advance sales period in aviation. A lot of traffic in March was already booked prior to the conflict and at lower prices and so passengers flew anyway, but the impact on April travel was more visible as the higher prices from the airlines kicked in,” said Mendis.
The higher airfares came as a result of limited fuel supplies and instability, which saw airlines hike their surcharges for fuel and to fund flexibility amid the disruptions.
Domestic traffic impact
The data revealed that South Africa’s domestic traffic seemed to be the segment most affected by the fuel price increases.
JNB’s domestic traffic in April fell by 9,95% compared with March and CPT by 10,17%. While DUR’s April domestic traffic saw a 11,12% increase, its year-on-year numbers fell by 3,86%, JNB by 3,63% and CPT’s by 5,59%.
“Domestic traffic, with its shorter advance purchase window, is being hurt by the increase in fuel prices and, consequently, the fuel surcharges and other ticket price increases. But international traffic may still see a large impact from lower current sales for future travel,” said Mendis.
FlySafair’s Chief Marketing Officer, Kirby Gordon, told Travel News that the airline, carrying about 60% of the South African market share, had noticed that passenger loads were down over March and April, noting that the domestic market continued to struggle in May.
“We noticed that May was worse than April. In April, the holidays helped a bit and May is traditionally a very quiet month for us, but more so this year for sure,” said Gordon.
International traffic impact
While JNB’s international traffic remained stable throughout March and April, CPT and DUR faced significant decreases.
“The loss of capacity from the Middle East carriers hurt Cape Town and Durban more as their percentage market penetration is bigger,” explained Jonathan Gerber, CEO of TAG Travel.
Throughout March and April, CPT’s international traffic exceeded and remained on a par with 2025 levels, however between March and April, international traffic fell by 20,21%, indicating its reliance on the Middle East carriers.
On the other hand, the impact on DUR’s international traffic was instantaneous, with traffic falling by 71% year-on-year in March and 52,87% year-on-year in April.
“The DUR figures show its reliance on Emirates and Qatar, particularly to provide the international traffic. When they did not operate their DUR flights for most of March, passenger traffic went down 70%. However, when they resumed their operations again in April it went up by 80% compared with March. Just two daily flights can swing the international traffic numbers for DUR,” explained Mendis.
While international traffic has not been as impacted by the conflict and fuel crisis yet, Gordon and Mendis warned that the booking lead time for international flights was much longer than domestic, so the dampening impact on passenger traffic might only be seen in coming months.
