Global load factors achieved a record high for May reaching 83,5% (a 0,1 percentage point increase compared with May 2025), while total demand was down 2,2% compared with May 2025. Total capacity decreased 2,3% year-on-year.
African airlines saw an 8,9% year-on-year increase in demand, the second highest increase of any region. However, load factors remained the lowest at 73,4% (a 0,4 percentage point increase compared with May 2025), while capacity grew 8,3%.
“Air passenger demand was down 2,2% in May due to the war in the Middle East. The decline was centred on carriers in the Middle East with a 28,4% year-on-year fall. That’s a significant improvement on the 46,6% decline recorded for April,” said Willie Walsh, IATA Director General.
Middle Eastern carriers saw a 28,8% year-on-year decrease in demand. Capacity fell 24,3% year-on-year, and the load factor was 76,1% (a 4,8 percentage point decrease compared with May 2025). The conflict continues to weigh on year-on-year comparisons, although its month-to-month impact is easing.
International demand fell 1,6% compared with May 2025 but, excluding the Middle East, it grew by 3,1%. Capacity was down 2,4% and the load factor was 83,7% (a 0,7 percentage point increase compared with May 2025).
“May demand appeared resilient in the face of high fuel prices and airfares. While the recent drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time. Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain and it is likely to take time before the benefit of lower oil prices is reflected in jet fuel pricing,” said Walsh.
He said airlines operating on a 2% margin would have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher fares to cover elevated fuel costs.
