Ten years ago, if you’d talked about virtual tourism, permission-based travel, cruise-shaming, cooler tourism and carbon passports, you might have got some funny looks.
But what sounded like crackpot ideas in the past are on the verge of becoming reality, and pretty soon, and it’s mostly due to global warming concerns and pushback from residents in destinations experiencing overcrowding.
In the past, travel has been the province of the very wealthy, but low-cost carriers and budget hotels have coincided with the emergence of a much wealthier middle class across the globe – and everybody seems to want to travel. Airports are busier than ever, queues are longer and aircraft are full.
Now, there is a point of view that says travel is at a tipping point and that enormous disruption in the whole concept is looming.
The main actor in the scenario is global warming caused by carbon emissions.
Aviation
The single biggest contributor to gas emissions is the burning of fossil fuels – coal, oil and natural gas. The energy sector (users of electricity, fossil fuels and gas production) gives us 75% of all emissions. Transport, including aviation, accounts for 22,4% of the energy sector’s gases.
Airlines themselves are responsible for a small amount of only around 2,1% of all carbon emissions. Yet their high visibility and their association with “travel for the rich” means they are regularly targeted by governments for punitive taxes and capacity cuts. Airlines are currently under enormous pressure to cut emissions by the use of expensive sustainable alternative fuels (SAFs).
Loyalty programmes could well begin driving passenger behaviour by rewarding low carbon options rather than high air miles.
Cruises
Cruise lines are responsible for only around 0,6% of all global carbon emissions. Now, the new phenomenon of ‘cruise-shaming’ has begun. Passengers disembarking at Douarnenez in France are being met by environmental protesters dressed up as polar bears and sea lions, calling out: “Shame on you” and “Go home”. Some disembarkations have had to be conducted under police guard.
Last week, a protester present as World Traveller was docking, was reported saying she was fed up with “luxury trips”. AFP reported that she said that these expedition ships engaged in last-chance tourism – see the last penguins, the last polar bears, the last icebergs. “It’s indecent,” she said. World Traveller often sails expeditions to Antarctica, the Arctic, Greenland and Iceland. Cruise ships are accused of leaving black carbon deposits on Antarctic ice, causing accelerated melting.
Euronews recently reported on a survey by adventure tour operator Intrepid Travel and trend forecaster The Future Laboratory.
Climate events
Over the past Northern hemisphere summer, dramatic and deadly floods, heatwaves and devastating wildfires took place, bringing the idea of a climate crisis right home to Europe. Many tourism destinations have been affected in France, Maui, Greece, Italy and others.
At the same time rising sea levels caused by global warming are taking a toll. Venice’s waters are rising. It’s believed that some islands in Maldives could be uninhabitable by 2050.
Climate passports
The survey revealed that carbon passports could provide part of the solution – there could be limits on how much travel an individual may take over a year, limits being imposed on the carbon emissions allowed. Climate experts suggest that people need to limit their carbon emissions to 2,3 tonnes per year. (The report says the current UK average is 11,7 tonnes.)
Travel permission
The concept of ‘permission-based travel’ could well take root. A traveller would need to prove to a destination that they would be a ‘quality tourist’. The traveller might need to demonstrate alignment with a destination’s specific needs, identity, morals, etiquette, and beliefs in a way that will contribute to the destination’s economy without compromising the quality of life of its residents.
Virtual tourism
Countries that feel themselves overwhelmed by tourism might in future choose virtual tourism as an alternative to feet on the ground. Virtual reality tours, like those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic could become the norm. The islands of Tuvalu and Vanuatu now fear being swamped by the rising sea. Tuvalu has created a digital version of itself where armchair tourists might venture. Virtual tourism could become the only way for tourists to see some destinations.
Cool tourism
Due to rising temperatures and heatwaves in traditional Med destinations, it’s expected that tourists could move away from the traditional sun and sand holidays towards cooler climates such as Scandinavia, Poland, Slovenia and Iceland.
Tickets
As overtourism creates physical damage to landscapes, leading to erosion, landslides and rockfalls, access to many tourism sites is being controlled and limited to ticketholders who often have only a limited time at the site. Access to the chalk cliffs of Normandy at Etretat and Italy’s Cinque Terre is now controlled.
Holiday rentals
Airbnb-type holiday rentals have caused residential housing shortages worldwide. Residents in many countries have protested that residential rentals are impossible to find, as landlords cash in on the Airbnb phenomenon. Cities in Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, UK, US, Canada, Malaysia, Japan, Australia and Singapore all have restrictions to the number of days that holiday rental accommodation is allowed to tourists.
Regenerative travel
Regenerative travel is predicted to shift tourists’ attention from product to people. Tourists already demand more meaningful experiences at destinations and are keen to know that the money they spend goes into local hands.
Trains not planes
Trains as an alternative to flights have already taken root in the mind of Europe. The report says night trains and luxury locomotion will continue to surge in popularity.
