TMCs are calling for a non-stop Cape Town-Lagos service, saying it would reduce travel times and improve connectivity for business travellers.
Cape Town-Lagos is Africa’s largest unserved route in 2026, with an estimated 70 passengers travelling indirectly in each direction daily, according to Embraer’s Africa Connectivity Report 2026. Embraer estimates that demand could rise to 94 passengers each way per day if a non-stop service were introduced.
“Although it is not a high-volume route, it is definitely underserved due to the lack of a direct service,” says Stefan van der Merwe, CEO of Sure Travel.
“We have a big demand for travel to Nigeria, not just to Lagos and Abuja but to Port Harcourt, which serves Nigeria’s main oil reserves, so flights out of Cape Town on this route would be welcome,” says Linda Edwards, MD of XL Turners Travel.
The growing demand reflects Cape Town’s emergence as a major business centre, says Henry Annandale, Ticketing Manager at TAG Travel. While Johannesburg traditionally served as the primary gateway between South Africa and West Africa, he says Cape Town has grown significantly as a corporate hub, with more multinational companies establishing regional offices there.
Current routing
According to Van der Merwe, most travellers connect via Johannesburg, Addis Ababa and Nairobi. However, the limited schedules make the overall trips a lot longer.
“The SAA flight via Johannesburg is the most preferred but as it is not daily, we are also using TAAG and Ethiopian from Cape Town,” says Edwards. She adds that business travellers prefer direct flights as it is time efficient and there is lower risk of disruption, especially for travel within Africa.
Itineraries with multiple connections present more challenges for corporate travellers. “These itineraries often mean that journey times increase significantly, despite the relatively short distance between the two cities. The main challenges include lengthy travel times, missed connections, limited schedule flexibility, overnight layovers, visa requirements associated with some transit points and baggage disruptions, which all reduce efficiency on short business trips,” says Annandale.
Sustaining the route
While demand for a direct Cape Town-Lagos service appears strong, travel agents say its long-term success will depend on frequency, pricing and consistent corporate traffic.
“Frequency and flight times would be important, especially since there is also a lot of travel from Port Elizabeth (Gqeberha) and East London that would use this route,” says Edwards.
Annandale believes flight frequency will be critical as corporate travellers value flexibility. “Reducing travel time by several hours makes same-week business trips more practical and lowers indirect travel costs associated with overnight stops and missed connections.”
Corporate clients also place importance on cabin availability. “This would significantly improve the value proposition for corporate travellers,” says Annandale.
Van der Merwe says pricing will also play an important factor. “Incorrect pricing and lower demand during certain parts of the year could limit the success of the route. However, it could be successful if priced correctly.”
Demand alone will not guarantee commercial success of the route. “Airlines must be confident that there is sufficient year-round premium demand to sustain the route and operational costs. Ultimately, a direct Cape Town-Lagos service has the potential to stimulate additional demand rather than simply capture existing traffic,” says Annandale.
