After stronger than expected recovery in 2022, international tourist arrivals overall could reach 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels this year, according to UNWTO's forward-looking scenarios for 2023.
This year could also see international tourist arrivals return to pre-pandemic levels in Europe and the Middle East, but it all depends on the extent of the economic slowdown, the ongoing recovery of travel in Asia and the Pacific, and how the Russian offensive in Ukraine evolves, among other factors.
Tourists are nonetheless expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home in response to the challenging economic climate, UNWTO adds.
All regions bouncing back
According to the data from UNWTO, more than 900 million tourists travelled internationally in 2022 – double the number recorded in 2021, though only 63% of pre-pandemic levels.
Every global region recorded notable increases in international tourist numbers.
The Middle East enjoyed the strongest relative increase, as arrivals climbed to 83% of pre-pandemic numbers. Europe reached nearly 80% of pre-pandemic levels, as it welcomed 585 million arrivals in 2022.
Africa and the Americas both recovered about 65% of their pre-pandemic visitors, while Asia and the Pacific reached only 23%, due to stronger pandemic-related restrictions, which started to be removed only in recent months.
"A new year brings more reason for optimism for global tourism. UNWTO anticipates a strong year for the sector, even in the face of diverse challenges, including the economic situation and continued geopolitical uncertainty. Economic factors may influence how people travel in 2023 and UNWTO expects demand for domestic and regional travel to remain strong and help drive the sector's wider recovery,” says UNWTO Secretary-General, Zurab Pololikashvili.
The latest UNWTO Confidence Index shows cautious optimism for January-April this year, more so than for the same period in 2022. This optimism is backed by the opening-up in Asia and strong spending numbers in 2022 from both traditional and emerging tourism source markets, with France, Germany and Italy as well as Qatar, India, and Saudi Arabia all posting strong results.
Chinese tourists set to return
UNWTO foresees the recovery continuing throughout 2023, even as the sector faces up to economic, health and geopolitical challenges. The recent lifting of COVID-19-related travel restrictions in China, the world's largest outbound market in 2019, is a significant step for the recovery of the tourism sector in Asia and the Pacific and worldwide.
In the short term, the resumption of travel from China is likely to benefit Asian destinations in particular. However, this will be shaped by the availability and cost of air travel, visa regulations, and COVID-19-related restrictions in the destinations. By mid-January, a total of 32 countries had imposed specific travel restrictions related to travel from China, mostly in Asia and Europe.
