Aircraft leasing company Avolon recently released its World Fleet Forecast, predicting that the global passenger aviation fleet will almost double by 2042.
According to Avolon, it will grow by 94% to 46 880 aircraft by the end of the forecast period. Over US$4 trillion (R74trn) will be required to finance the 44 300 new passenger commercial aircraft to be delivered over the next 20 years.
Passenger demand is expected to rise by 3,5% per annum from a 2019 base, a lower pace of expansion than the 5-6% of the previous 20 years, due to higher fares resulting from aircraft supply shortages and increasing sustainability levies.
Key forecast points:
- Asia and Latin America will see the biggest increase in travel towards 2042 at 5% and 4,9% respectively.
- Mature markets such as North America (2%) and Europe (3,1%) will grow at a more moderate rate.
- Growth of narrowbody fleet (112%) will outpace that of widebody fleet (97%), as single-aisle aircraft accommodate more passengers and further trans-continental flight distances.
- Growth of regional jet (11%) and turboprop (36%) fleet will be more modest.
- The global fleet will transition to mainly (95%) new-technology, fuel-efficient aircraft.
- Airbus will maintain its strong market position in the narrowbody segment, accounting for 58% of the global narrowbody fleet by 2042, while Boeing will maintain its 59% share leadership of the widebody segment.
