On February 5, Acsa is expected to release its 2025 aircraft and passenger figures, which should provide a clearer picture of whether South Africa’s international air connectivity has returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Travel News spoke to industry stakeholders and aviation experts to explore the trade’s perspective on how airlift is faring and whether our capacity on international routes has been restored.
While the experts agree that South Africa’s direct international connectivity is trending upwards, they warn that the landscape has changed. Driven by shifting demand and SAA’s reduced international market share, the distribution of flights across the country's three primary gateways has undergone a fundamental shift.
JNB bottleneck breaks
According to aviation consultant, Sean Mendis, pressure on OR Tambo International (JNB) as South Africa’s primary international hub predates the pandemic, but was sharply accelerated by COVID and SAA’s business rescue.
“In the mid-90s, SAA had more than 50% of the long-haul market share in South Africa from its hub in Johannesburg, but this decreased to around 20% in 2019, before the spike in its business risk,” said Mendis.
SAA used to serve routes to London, Frankfurt, Munich, Paris, Zurich, Milan, Rome, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, and Mumbai, as well as several key African hubs.
“A combination of the airline’s strike, business rescue and COVID simply accelerated this decline to rock bottom but now it’s bouncing back,” said Mendis.
However, this recovery has not come without its own challenges, say industry experts.
At the root of JNB’s post-pandemic international connectivity reduction is the rise of Cape Town International’s (CPT) popularity. As a result, many international airlines that halted flights to Johannesburg due to COVID are returning with new interest in Cape Town.
Stefan van der Merwe, CEO of Sure Travel, told Travel News that, as a result, JNB now faced a lot of pressure to maintain its load factor on its international flights, as airlines were struggling to regularly fill the seats outside peak travel periods.
CPT’s rise to popularity
One of the biggest impacts of COVID on South Africa’s international air connectivity, was the post-pandemic rise of CPT as a point-to-point gateway for long-haul travel.
“CPT now offers more choice and higher frequencies than before the pandemic, with several airlines planning to add further services. Based on current demand trends, I believe there is sufficient market potential to sustain even more additional direct flights,” said Marco Ciocchetti, CEO of XL Travel.
Mendis explained, that while JNB remained the larger player, CPT recovered and exceeded pre-COVID international flight numbers a lot quicker due to its tourism economy.
Since COVID, CPT has seen a selection of new flights, including United’s Washington and New York services, as well as Delta’s Atlanta, Norse Atlantic’s Gatwick and LATAM’s São Paulo flights.
Durban left behind
In contrast, King Shaka International Airport has seen the most volatile recovery of South Africa’s three major hubs. After briefly attracting a small number of long-haul services in the late 2010s, Durban’s international connectivity was hit hard by changing demand patterns and the pandemic.
Several routes were either withdrawn entirely or downgraded to stopovers via Johannesburg.
“Durban remains a gap with its decrease in direct international flight options,” said Van der Merwe. “The city's tourism took a big hit and has not recovered due to various reasons. That, combined with the relatively lower fares being sold from Durban, does not make it a popular option for direct routes from international airlines. I don't see that changing any time soon, unless the new Club Med development revives interest in the area from a tourism perspective.”
Direct access on the rise
Expert views varied on whether the country has closed the pre-pandemic gap, yet there was a clear consensus that South Africa’s direct international access is gaining significant momentum.
“South Africa had more direct international flights and certain routes remain particularly missed by South African travellers. While both the number of flights and overall seat capacity are still somewhat below pre-COVID levels, many routes and operations have been steadily restored,” said Ciocchetti.
On the other hand, Sue Garrett, GM of Supply, Pricing & Marketing at Flight Centre Travel Group South Africa, said international connectivity was restored and that healthy travel demand was being met by various carriers, with South African travellers enjoying direct access to key destinations in the UK and EU as well as Perth, São Paulo, Dubai, Zanzibar, New York, and Washington.
Van der Merwe also noticed a definite uptick in the number of international direct flights coming to South Africa over the past few months, and found that specific routes were becoming more affordable as more capacity arrived in the market.
“The primary challenge now lies in increasing the number of available frequencies to provide travellers with greater flexibility and agents with the ability to offer the most convenient flight options for their clients,” said Ciochetti.
