A 3,5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for air passengers is expected, leading to the doubling of figures to 8,2bn over the course of two decades. This is according to predictions made by The International Air Transport Association (Iata) revealing the present trends in air transport.
Iata’s director general and ceo Alexandre de Juniac noted a geographical reshuffling of world air traffic to the East with this years forecast, and predicted a significant negative impact on the growth and benefits of aviation if tough and restrictive protectionist measures are implemented.
The Asia-Pacific region will drive the biggest growth with more than half the total number of new passengers over the next 20 years coming from these markets. Routes to, from and within Asia-Pacific will see an extra 2,35bn annual passengers by 2037, for a total market size of 3.9bn passengers. Its compound annual growth rate of 4,8% is the highest, followed by Africa and the Middle East. Growth in this market is being driven by a combination of continued robust economic growth, improvements in household incomes and favorable population and demographic profiles.
A shift to the East is evident with statistics showing that China will displace the US as the world’s largest aviation market in the mid 2020s. India will take third place, following the US which surpasses the UK around 2024. Indonesia is expected to move from tenth place to fourth by 2030.
Thailand will enter the top ten markets in 2030, replacing Italy which drops out of the ranking. In terms of annual additional passengers from 2017 to 2037, the study predicts 1bn new passengers for China, 481m new passengers for the US, 414m new passengers for India, 282m for Indonesia, and 116m for Thailand.
