A potential non-stop Johannesburg-Mumbai service remains one of the most discussed long-haul route opportunities amongst the SA travel trade. However, aviation experts have warned of a disconnect between demand and commercial viability.
Was the India route ever profitable?
When SAA suspended its Mumbai service in 2015, the airline claimed it was due to poor performance and cash-flow pressures. However, evidence presented during the South African State Capture Enquiry in 2018 suggested that political interference, including allegations of preferential treatment for Gupta-linked Jet Airways, may have played a role in the decision.
Aviation consultant, Sean Mendis, speculates that the route was one of many international routes operated by SAA that was not viable due to the financial state of the airline at the time.
The South African travel and tourism sectors have lobbied for the route’s return ever since its suspension, yet it remains unclear if the current market demand can financially support a direct service.
Patterns in demand
Data from local and international reports reveal increasing traffic on SA-India routes, post-pandemic, and show patterns that substantiate agents’ advocacy for the route.
Airbus’s 2024 and 2025 ‘Unserved routes to, from and within Sub-Saharan Africa’ report, found that Johannesburg-Mumbai remained the second-largest unserved route in Africa, after Harare-London.
The report’s analysis of the origin and destination traffic between the cities revealed that it remained significantly below pre-pandemic levels, but continued to see growth. The route, which once saw 114 000 passengers in 2018/19, handled just 85 900 passengers in 2023/24. Despite this, the route saw 4% year-on-year traffic growth between 2022/23 and 2023/24.
“Launching the non-stop flight may push traffic levels back to the pre-pandemic state or may possibly even result in a significant traffic volume increase,” said Airbus.
Airbus highlighted the countries’ economic and political ties amid their BRICS partnership and claimed that this would be one of the catalysts for establishing more direct air links.
Supply chain issues
In May 2025, SAA told Travel News that it was forced to revise its plans to relaunch flights to India, citing ongoing challenges with aircraft availability.
The airline planned to launch its Mumbai route in October last year, however due to difficulties acquiring aircraft, its timeline was extended, with the launch now planned for 2026.
Tebogo Tsimane, SAA’s CCO, told the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) in December 2025, that the airline’s limited long-haul fleet and delayed widebody deliveries had set SAA back on its plans to expand its international network.
“The SA-India route was on SAA’s list for 2025. If it had received its long-haul aircraft in 2025, the first one would have been deployed on India at the time,” said Mendis.
“It is obviously a humongous market. However, the challenge is it is a very low-fare market and it will be very difficult for SAA to compete.”
Current competition
Mendis told Travel News that the Johannesburg-Mumbai route was saturated with competition from carriers operating indirect flights.
He explained that among the airlines operating services between SA and India via their respective hubs, Ethiopian dominated the route, carrying about 20 000 passengers a year, with one of the lowest average fares.
“For SAA, this route is a bigger risk. Right now, SAA’s cost, especially given its fleet, would not allow it to compete at the current average market fare. Their goal would have to be to increase the fares by offering a premium non-stop flight which would hopefully allow them to charge slightly higher fares than the average fare.”
