The ongoing Middle East conflict, airspace closures and flight disruptions have created uncertainty across the travel industry, leaving agents scrambling to assist stranded travellers while capacity shortages push airfares higher.
“I don’t think this situation can worsen,” said Jonathan Gerber, CEO of Tag Travel. “Currently airspace is closed, but for a few mercy repatriation flights. This will continue for as long as it’s not safe. It’s hard to say when but the longer that this continues the worse it will be for everyone and for Emirates and Qatar’s recovery.”
Agents left in limbo
Agents have said that the airspace closure and flight cancellations have left them struggling to assist stranded passengers while also advising nervous clients due to travel in the coming weeks.
“Agents have clients that are flying with the impacted airlines in the next month, but they are in limbo as the normal terms and conditions for these flights still apply,” said Gerber.
“There is also a big shift to now move clients who were flying via the Middle East on to other airlines, however, the problem, as I see it, is that the airlines are only moving the dial a day at a time.”
Gerber said there had been significant changes to short-term booking patterns, as travellers who would have opted for a connecting flight via the Middle East are now more inclined to fly direct.
Low supply, high prices
“Flights are filling up fast as the reduction in capacity hits. The problem that is about to hit the SA market is affordability as we are already see pricing going up. The longer this continues, the more people will need to get to places and the more the price will go up,” said Gerber.
Aviation consultant Sean Mendis said the pressure was particularly visible among travellers needing to rebook at short notice or those who originally planned to travel via Dubai or Doha.
“These travellers are seeing higher fares right now. Carriers offering in-demand direct flights, such as British Airways for South Africans, have likely already sold 90% of their seats because they were offering discounts for March as a low season. So, with 90% of their seats are already sold, the only seats which are left are now the high-priced seats,” said Mendis.
However, agents can expect a reprieve in airfares when the Middle Eastern carriers resume their operations. Gerber said he expected Emirates and Qatar to return to this market with aggressive pricing discounts to incentivise travellers to continue or resume using their services.
Which SA routes are most impacted?
Although many South Africans use Middle Eastern hubs for connections, a growing share of passengers is travelling directly to the region rather than transiting onward.
“The proportion of traffic between South Africa and the Middle East has grown significantly in the past three years, so the bulk of impacted South African travellers are the ones who are going to the Middle East, as opposed to those in transit,” said Mendis.
IATA Direct Data Solutions revealed that in 2024, 23,7% of EK passengers on its Johannesburg-Dubai route were travelling to Dubai as their final destination. This proportion of passengers increased to 29,7% in 2025.
Mendis revealed that, of the estimated 45 million passengers (both domestic and international) that were handled by OR Tambo International in 2025, only about 2% were flying with Emirates, Qatar or Etihad and only 3% of Cape Town International’s total passengers were serviced by the Middle Eastern airlines.
“Despite these statistics, it is not as though Middle Eastern carriers are losing influence in the South African market. On the contrary, they are gaining influence, with absolute numbers of passengers they are transporting growing by between 10% and 12% a year. But those people are not going to Europe, they are travelling to the Middle East and Asia,” said Mendis.
