A mid-year slowdown is rattling the travel trade, with geopolitical shocks weighing on international booking volumes. A recent Travelinfo OpenJaw survey of more than 160 local travel agents found that more than a quarter of respondents had experienced a general slowdown.
In line with local agents’ experiences, UN Tourism has revised its initial 2026 global growth forecast of between 3% and 4% downward by up to two percentage points, citing the combined impact of flight disruptions, jet fuel shortages and higher oil prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
UN Tourism Secretary General, Shaikha Al Nuwais, said higher travel costs and geopolitical uncertainty had dented traveller confidence.
“The conflict in the Middle East disrupted travel patterns well beyond the region itself, including rising inflation, particularly in transport and accommodation,” said Al Nuwais.
The travel slump is temporary
Political Economy Analyst and Director of Political Future Consulting, Daniel Silke, believes the downturn is unlikely to last, with booking volumes expected to recover over the next six to 12 months. However, he said the pace of recovery would depend largely on stability returning to the Middle East and the recovery of the Gulf carriers.
While the situation is unlikely to improve in the short term, Silke expects travel demand to rebound over the medium to long term.
“This is a temporary slump, and I think consumers are going to look in the medium term to re-establish their travel habits and perhaps their spending habits, as long as some of these short-term cost shocks, like the price of oil, begin to soften over the next few months, and they have started to already,” said Silke.
“The short-term effects will be felt as it is, but I think that we will see a resumption of reasonably normal travel patterns within the medium to longer term, the next six to nine months, over the next year. However, this depends on stability coming out of the Gulf region itself and the availability of fuel supplies.”
Shopping for expertise, not booking
In the interim, travel advisers are left managing the economic fall-out on the ground. South African consumers are feeling the knock-on effects of higher fuel prices, with increasing prices across the spectrum.
“Consumers are feeling the impact of the increase in fuel prices and the domino effect on just about every other pricing structure within South Africa, including transport, food, logistics. All prices adjusted themselves upwards as a result of the higher oil price in this last four-month period,” said Silke.
While the fundamental desire to travel was intact, said Silke, restricted discretionary income had triggered two distinct client behaviours that were altering traditional booking pipelines, particularly expectations regarding downsizing itineraries and increased tendencies towards last-minute bookings, as clients attempted to navigate the fluctuating rand and price uncertainty.
As a result, many travellers are shopping for the expertise of travel agents but ultimately booking elsewhere.
Protecting intellectual property
Jenna De Allende, GM of Sure Giltedge International and Incentives, said it was essential to protect agents’ intellectual property while the market stabilised.
“I believe consultants need to become more comfortable identifying early on whether there is genuine alignment between what the traveller is looking for and the service they provide.
“Not every enquiry will convert into a booking and not every traveller is looking for the expertise, support and service that a professional travel consultant offers. Having open conversations around expectations, budget and travel requirements early in the process can save considerable time and frustration for both parties.”
De Allende highlighted the value of agents’ expertise, from creating complex itineraries, managing multiple suppliers and navigating visa requirements to supporting clients through disruptions, which requires experience, knowledge and time.
“There is nothing wrong with placing reasonable boundaries around that expertise,” she said. “Consultants need to recognise that not every traveller will be the right fit for their business. If a client's sole objective is to secure the cheapest possible price, irrespective of service, support or expertise, there is a strong possibility they are not looking for the services of a professional travel consultant in the first place.”
Gulf aviation recovery essential
Silke said a recovery in global travel would depend on stabilised fuel supplies, restored refining capacity and the return of Gulf carriers to full operating schedules.
“There is no guarantee yet of a stable supply of oil or aviation fuel coming out of the Gulf region. There is still uncertainty regarding the safety of vessels coming through the Strait of Hormuz and, of course, there's also been some damage to infrastructure. It is going to take some time before oil tankers are able to pass freely and so there will be a delay in pumping supply into the global marketplace.”
He predicted that once fuel supplies stabilised, the cost of living and travel costs would gradually decline. However, he warned that there would still be a lag, with fuel prices only expected to ease gradually towards the end of the year.
Additionally, Silke highlighted the importance of the Gulf carriers for international travel costs, noting that they might offer substantial incentives in coming months to win back their customer base and credibility.
“I think this will afford South Africans and others a chance to book more long-haul travel at more affordable rates, but there will be a period of adjustment as the Gulf airlines come back on stream and re-establish their hubs.”
